Off-Cycle PhD Reflections: Housing in Census 2023, the Media and Social Cohesion

Houses, trust issues, and why we're all feeling a little unstable. Some of my messy PhD reflections, for my own sake and sanity, and in case it helps anybody understand the messy world we live in.

I’m breaking my usual schedule here, but after spending days deep in the 2023 Census data for my PhD, I wanted to share some thoughts, reflections, and messy notes. This post isn’t polished, formal, or peer-reviewed—just a place to track my reflections, share my thoughts, and hopefully add value in some small way. For context, I’m nine months into a 3-year, full-time PhD programme at Te Herenag Waka Victoria University of Wellington, School of Government. I am currently head down and all hands on deck to get my PhD Research Proposal ready for my presentation in December 2024.

Housing in 2024: A Tipping Point?

So, I decided to focus my PhD question on housing because my broad PhD question is about the relationship between policy and social cohesion. Just policy was too broad, so I decided to focus on housing policy. Hence, I have been diving into housing data from Census 2023 these past few weeks. This week, it was specifically the steep drop in new home consents and what that means for our growing population and social cohesion. In 2024, we saw a 22% decrease in approved homes. Only 33,921 new homes were greenlit. Why? Mainly because of money.

This raises a key question for me: what does this mean for social cohesion? Given all I’ve read over the last nine months, plus my time working at MSD on social cohesion policy, I’m wondering what this drop could signal for how we live together.

Photo by EJ Yao on Unsplash

The Escalating Cost of Building

We all know it’s getting more expensive to build homes. Interest rates have jumped roughly, making it nearly impossible for developers—big and small—to secure financing. As David Hargreaves from Interest.co.nz pointed out recently, non-performing housing loans have hit an 11-year high, signalling deeper troubles for those trying to keep up with mortgage payments. Fewer people are buying homes off the plan, so developers lose the guaranteed funds needed to start projects. So, fewer houses are being built, and on and on we go.

Meanwhile, construction costs are soaring, increasing the cost of rents, as Susan Edmunds (RNZ) highlights in her reporting about Kainga Ora’s struggle with tenant rent arrears. Supply chain delays from COVID, material shortages, and the war in Ukraine have made building pricier than ever. Labour costs are also high, and they’re not going down. As wages rise, they rarely return to pre-crisis levels. It’s a vicious cycle and as Interest.co.nz’s Greg Ninness notes, three-bedroom houses are providing poor returns for investors, with multi-unit properties emerging as a better option.

But what does any of this have to do with social cohesion? Stick with me for a moment, or 2.5 more years while I finish my PhD. But where I got today, read below.

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

The Future of Housing: Will It Get Better?

I'm unsure, and I can't tell if I'm feeling pessimistic or optimistic about it. I might be too far into the weeds of the data to know at the moment. But what do you think? Will the housing crisis improve? Maybe with better policies? But it could also get worse before it gets better. As we move into spring, housing market power remains with buyers, as Greg Ninness has observed in his latest analysis of market trends (Interest).

In my last post, The Housing Puzzle: And Does It Relate to Social Cohesion? I explored the link between housing affordability and our ability to maintain social cohesion. The deeper I dive into the 2023 Census data, the clearer it becomes that these issues are not only connected but that they are, and if we don’t identify how fast, the situation may worsen. The drop in new home consents and population growth hints at a housing crisis with profound economic, political, and social implications. My working theory is that the more fragmented our housing policies, the more fragile our communities become and the more at risk our social cohesion is. But can I prove this through a creative and innovative methodology? Not sure. Stay tuned for 2026 results.

Population Growth Meets a Shrinking Housing Market

Another issue? Population growth. Since 2018, New Zealand’s population has grown by 300,000 people. That puts even more strain on an already tight housing market, especially in the cities. As Louise Ternouth at RNZ pointed out, over-65s are spending nearly all their pension on rent, leaving little room for flexibility in an economy that’s shifting rapidly: more people, fewer homes, rising unemployment—a perfect hot, messy storm.

Most of us know housing isn’t just about physical shelter. It’s about how we live together and feel connected. Housing is tied to our sense of community, belonging, and fairness. We often talk about social cohesion in terms of equity, justice, and safety. Still, we rarely link it directly to housing policy, which is usually discussed more regarding tax distribution, like capital gains and health outcomes tied to poor housing conditions. But we haven’t made the direct link between housing policy and how it erodes or enhances our social cohesion.

This is the heart of my PhD: how are housing and social cohesion connected? We usually discuss housing in the context of taxes, property costs, or healthcare. Social cohesion, on the other hand, is often framed around politics, misinformation, or immigration. But I believe they’re more intertwined than we realize.

Here’s a hypothesis I’m exploring: housing instability might stress communities, eroding social cohesion and driving division. But the bigger question is: how? And can I prove it? Stay tuned for the 2026 PhD results.

Eroding Trust: KiwiBuild, Housing Policies, and the 2023 Census

The housing market is riddled with challenges, and while misinformation may add noise to the conversation, the real issue lies deeper: the erosion of trust in institutions—another massive piece to the giant social cohesion puzzle.

Take KiwiBuild, for example. It was launched with a bold promise: 100,000 affordable homes within a decade. Hailed as a game changer for New Zealand’s housing crisis, it quickly became clear that the initiative was falling short. By 2019, KiwiBuild had shifted to partnering with private developers but still struggled to deliver its promises. Instead of widespread, affordable housing, it became another tale of winners and losers. Very few lucky buyers saw property values soar, while others could not access affordable homes. This failure to meet expectations not only impacted housing but also dealt a significant blow to public trust in government-led solutions.

And this erosion of trust doesn’t stop with housing policies—it’s part of a broader societal shift. Stuff recently reported that buyer activity has spiked after a recent OCR drop, yet scepticism about the long-term stability of the market remains high (Imogen Wells). Over the last few decades, New Zealand has seen significant changes, mainly due to migration and last year’s political swing from Left to Right. After six years of left-leaning leadership, the most right-wing government in decades now holds power, introducing new and complex political and social dynamics.

To give a clear example of how this erosion of trust in public institutions plays out, look at what happened with the 2023 Census. 20,000 people outright refused to participate, compared to just 6,000 in 2018. This refusal isn’t just scepticism about the Census—it signals a deeper distrust in government institutions. When trust breaks down, it goes beyond the housing market and affects the very structures that hold society together.

Trying to Connect the Dots

So, where did I get to after this personal, semi-structured public ramble about where I'm at with my research? I think the housing crisis and the quality of social cohesion aren’t isolated, independent events. They’re part of the same problem, intertwined in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

As I continue to explore these connections in my PhD, I’d love to hear your thoughts. How do you see the housing crisis affecting social cohesion in your community? And what role do you think trust in institutions—or the lack thereof—plays in all this?

See you on Tuesday when I discuss what a centrist is and how to become one! Talk then. Nat