What if Christopher Luxon had endorsed Raf Manji in Ilam?

This is an excerpt from the chapter I wrote for 'Back on Track? The New Zealand General Election of 2023', a book edited by Professor Stephen Levine, which comes out in October 2024.

Back on Track? The New Zealand General Election of 2023

Which is ready for pre-order here

In the chapter titled The Opportunities Party and the Campaign in Wellington Central from the book Back on Track? The New Zealand General Election of 2023, edited by Professor Stephen Levine, I share my experience in running in the 2023 Election for Wellington Central.

Inspired by Professor Stephen Levine’s ideas on counterfactuals and his two ‘what if?’ books – New Zealand As It Might Have Been 1 and 2 – I want to conclude with a ‘what if?’ scenario.

This scenario is designed to provoke thought about how we might evolve New Zealand’s MMP system without drastic changes, such as lowering the five per cent threshold for parliamentary representation. The following excerpt delves into the question: What if Christopher Luxon had endorsed Raf Manji in Ilam?

You can read more about my TOP campaign in my previous Substack blog, titled Why I Joined and Left TOP.

I attended the Start-up Debate held by Creative HQ. The panel was diverse and all-women, and it was an honour to be a part of it.

What if Christopher Luxon had endorsed Raf Manji in Ilam?

I believe our now Prime Minister Christopher Luxon had a historic opportunity to endorse a small centrist party in Ilam, building a coalition that could have bridged the political spectrum more effectively. A different coalition from the one that he assembled was possible. As John Key had endorsed David Seymour, in Epsom, giving ACT a place in Parliament, so too Christopher Luxon could have encouraged National voters in Ilam to vote for Raf Manji, potentially giving TOP several seats in Parliament.

This could have led to a more coherent, less chaotic coalition, one committed to competent, centrist government. By failing to seize this opportunity, I think that National’s leader, now prime minister, highlighted a limited understanding of the mechanisms available to stabilise and balance our political landscape and missed an opportunity to demonstrate a new vision, innovative thinking, and political courage, all in the interest of the greater good of the country.

A quick clarification: I am not posing this scenario because I am part of TOP; I am part of TOP because this is the type of scenario that I believe could help bring distinct groups with opposing views together.

It is really difficult to have conversations about big issues today – climate, housing, the economy – however, if we don’t get on top of these hard conversations it will further erode our capacity to solve these important challenges.

My ongoing commitment is to serve our democratic process by providing high-quality information and advice through appropriate channels to any and all political actors participating in our democracy. In that spirit, I want to conclude with a possible suggestion. How about a non-partisan candidate coalition programme? This programme would offer guidance and resources to any and all candidates running in general elections, helping them know how to campaign in a manner that aligns more closely with the values and principles of MMP, and away from FPP thinking.

Such an initiative could help transform our campaign strategies to mirror our governance approach, enhancing trust in politics, reducing public cynicism and strengthening our national social cohesion. The aim would be to make our elected government a continuation of the campaigns, and thereby avoid blindsiding the voters and institutions that need to react to the new government’s policies, which are usually more uncertain due to the nature of MMP.

I hope that my story and campaign inspire more individuals to consider running for public office; to challenge all of our political assumptions; and to rethink how we campaign. The way we campaign can have an impact on the trust our society places in our political institutions.

I want to close with an excerpt from a poem I heard on the campaign trail at the Wellbeing Economy Alliance Conference in Auckland in August 2023 by the Wellington talent Alina Siegfried.

I believe this poem can challenge the polarised views that are eroding our capacity to solve the big issues we are facing.

[S]o confident are we that we are the ones who are right, we have turned respectful public debate into millions of miniature individual dictatorships of the mind. The teeth of our savage sound bites grow ever sharper by the day while indignant ears remain deaf to anything that does not reinforce our worldview – there is no room for reason in a lynch mob. No longer a gift in give and take, no space for context and complexity in a 280-character tweet, the air is growing thin here in this echo chamber, it’s getting harder and harder to breathe.

Ngā mihi nui kia koutou katoa